Ravens vs Bengals — Week 5, 2024
The Ravens took over tied at 38 with 4:26 left, 1st & 10 at their own 43, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 38, Bengals 38. Tied 38-38 — the drive scored.
Ravens ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 43, 4:26 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 37.6% for Ravens. Our model starts at 62.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:26) 22-D.Henry left end to CIN 6 for 51 yards (22-G.Stone).
- (3:36) 9-J.Tucker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.02 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-3.37 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.02 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.76 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.34 pts |
| QB keep | +0.14 pts |
| Quick out | +0.06 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.06 pts |
| Curl route | -0.13 pts |
| Play action | -0.18 pts |
| Outside run | -0.24 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.29 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.58 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.84 pts |
| Inside run | -0.99 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.64 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.09 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.53 pts |
| Spike it | -2.78 pts |
| Deep post | -3.37 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.