Broncos vs Raiders — Week 12, 2024
The Broncos took over leading 26-19 with 3:38 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Broncos 29, Raiders 19. Broncos won 29-19 — the drive turned it over.
Broncos ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 30, 3:38 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 91.8% for Broncos. Our model starts at 92.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:38) (Shotgun) 79-M.Peart reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Vele (25-D.Richardson).
- (3:33) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right to 14-C.Sutton.
- (3:28) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right to 14-C.Sutton (20-I.Pola-Mao).
- (3:23) 9-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to LV 16, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 19-D.Turner to LV 24 for 8 yards (1-T.Smith; 52-J.Elliss).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.40 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.67 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.40 pts |
| Outside run | -0.07 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.37 pts |
| Inside run | -0.37 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.54 pts |
| Quick out | -0.95 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.99 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.03 pts |
| QB keep | -1.05 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.26 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.31 pts |
| Play action | -2.61 pts |
| Curl route | -2.90 pts |
| End-around | -4.90 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.12 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.99 pts |
| Deep post | -8.57 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.77 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.67 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.