Saints vs Falcons — Week 10, 2024
The Saints took over leading 20-17 with 1:59 left, 1st & 10 at their own 38, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Saints 20, Falcons 17. Saints won 20-17 — the drive turned it over.
Saints ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 38, 1:59 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 90.8% for Saints. Our model starts at 85.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:59) 41-A.Kamara left guard to NO 40 for 2 yards (90-D.Onyemata; 55-K.Elliss).
- (1:53) (Shotgun) 74-O.Udoh reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill left guard to NO 44 for 4 yards (53-N.Landman).
- (1:48) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep left to 41-A.Kamara.
- (1:42) 43-M.Hayball punts 42 yards to ATL 14, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 26-A.Williams.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.44 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.42 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.44 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.15 pts |
| Outside run | -0.14 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.31 pts |
| Quick out | -0.41 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.48 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.49 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.53 pts |
| QB keep | -0.58 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.59 pts |
| Inside run | -0.62 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.50 pts |
| Play action | -1.50 pts |
| Curl route | -1.76 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.93 pts |
| End-around | -4.21 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.69 pts |
| Deep post | -6.79 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.65 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.42 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.