Texans vs Bears — Week 2, 2024
The Texans took over leading 19-13 with 2:45 left, 1st & 10 at their own 39, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Texans 19, Bears 13. Texans won 19-13 — the drive turned it over.
Texans ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 39, 2:45 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 90.9% for Texans. Our model starts at 93.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:45) 33-D.Ogunbowale up the middle to HOU 39 for no gain (57-J.Sanborn; 95-D.Walker).
- (2:02) 33-D.Ogunbowale right guard to HOU 42 for 3 yards (9-J.Brisker, 53-T.Edwards).
- (1:50) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 1-S.Diggs to HOU 36 for 4 yards (9-J.Brisker; 6-K.Gordon).
- (1:45) 6-T.Townsend punts 44 yards to CHI 20, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-D.Carter.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.16 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.88 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.16 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| Outside run | -0.46 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.47 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.59 pts |
| Inside run | -0.68 pts |
| Quick out | -1.00 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.03 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.06 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.33 pts |
| QB keep | -1.34 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.64 pts |
| Play action | -2.60 pts |
| Curl route | -3.02 pts |
| End-around | -5.07 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.10 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.00 pts |
| Deep post | -8.63 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.96 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.88 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.