Lions vs Cardinals — Week 3, 2024
The Lions took over leading 20-13 with 3:48 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: Lions 20, Cardinals 13. Lions won 20-13 — the drive time expired.
Lions ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 30, 3:48 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.7% for Lions. Our model starts at 92.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:48) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 5-D.Montgomery left tackle to DET 34 for 4 yards (98-R.Lopez; 45-D.Gardeck).
- (3:02) 5-D.Montgomery right tackle to DET 28 for -1 yards (25-Z.Collins).
- (2:20) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 14-A.St. Brown to DET 46 for 18 yards (23-S.Murphy-Bunting).
- (2:00) 5-D.Montgomery left tackle to DET 49 for 3 yards (2-Ma.Wilson; 55-D.Stills).
- (1:56) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff scrambles right end to ARI 43 for 8 yards (3-B.Baker).
- (1:13) 16-J.Goff kneels to ARI 44 for -1 yards.
- (:39) 16-J.Goff kneels to ARI 45 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.31 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.74 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.31 pts |
| Outside run | -0.28 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Inside run | -0.54 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.58 pts |
| Quick out | -0.99 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.03 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.06 pts |
| QB keep | -1.21 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.32 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.48 pts |
| Play action | -2.67 pts |
| Curl route | -2.97 pts |
| End-around | -4.97 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.18 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.05 pts |
| Deep post | -8.65 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.84 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.74 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.