Chiefs vs Ravens — Week 1, 2024
The Chiefs took over leading 27-20 with 4:54 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Ravens.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 27, Ravens 20. Chiefs won 27-20 — the drive turned it over.
Chiefs ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 30, 4:54 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.0% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 90.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:54) 10-I.Pacheco right tackle to KC 35 for 5 yards (39-E.Jackson).
- (4:06) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 10-I.Pacheco to KC 40 for 10 yards (2-N.Wiggins).
- (3:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco right guard to KC 42 for 2 yards (98-T.Jones).
- (2:47) 42-C.Steele left end to KC 40 for -2 yards (0-R.Smith).
- (2:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 15-P.Mahomes to KC 42 for 2 yards (99-O.Oweh).
- (2:00) 14-M.Araiza punts 48 yards to BAL 10, Center-41-J.Winchester. 3-D.Harty to BAL 13 for 3 yards (13-N.Johnson).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.34 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.55 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.34 pts |
| Outside run | -0.49 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.51 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.58 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.60 pts |
| Inside run | -0.76 pts |
| Quick out | -1.02 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.06 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.10 pts |
| QB keep | -1.32 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.33 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.69 pts |
| Play action | -2.51 pts |
| Curl route | -2.91 pts |
| End-around | -4.90 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.97 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.82 pts |
| Deep post | -8.29 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.69 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.55 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.