Seahawks vs 49ers — Week 11, 2024
The Seahawks took over trailing 17-13 with 2:38 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 1 timeout in hand, against the 49ers.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 20, 49ers 17. Seahawks won 20-17 — the drive scored.
Seahawks ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 20, 2:38 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 23.7% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 20.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:38) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 14-D.Metcalf pushed ob at SEA 31 for 11 yards (0-R.Green). San Francisco challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)
- (2:33) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 9-K.Walker pushed ob at SEA 36 for 5 yards (0-R.Green).
- (2:27) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 9-K.Walker to SEA 36 for no gain (59-D.Campbell).
- (2:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to SEA 44 for 8 yards (2-D.Lenoir).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to SF 49 for 7 yards (2-D.Lenoir).
- (1:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short left to 14-D.Metcalf.
- (1:36) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to SF 34 for 15 yards (27-J.Brown).
- (1:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at SF 37 for -3 yards (56-L.Floyd).
- (:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith scrambles right end to SF 21 for 16 yards (0-R.Green).
- (:39) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to SF 13 for 8 yards (22-I.Yiadom).
- (:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith scrambles left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.56 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.94 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.56 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.16 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.10 pts |
| Deep post | +1.00 pts |
| QB keep | +0.97 pts |
| Play action | +0.73 pts |
| Quick out | +0.51 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.42 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.25 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.21 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.12 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.52 pts |
| Outside run | -0.70 pts |
| Inside run | -1.22 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.40 pts |
| Spike it | -1.94 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.