Saints vs Falcons — Week 4, 2024
The Saints took over trailing 23-17 with 3:28 left, 1st & 10 at the Falcons 42, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Saints 24, Falcons 26. Falcons won 26-24 — the drive scored.
Saints ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. In Falcons territory, 3:28 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 24.7% for Saints. Our model starts at 24.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 41-A.Kamara to ATL 49 for 3 yards (0-L.Carter).
- (2:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 22-R.Shaheed pushed ob at ATL 38 for 11 yards (24-A.Terrell).
- (2:35) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 12-C.Olave pushed ob at ATL 25 for 13 yards (20-D.Alford).
- (2:29) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 83-J.Johnson to ATL 17 for 8 yards (20-D.Alford).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short right to 41-A.Kamara.
- (1:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 12-C.Olave to ATL 1 for 16 yards (20-D.Alford).
- (1:53) 4-D.Carr right guard to ATL 1 for no gain (97-G.Jarrett).
- (1:48) 4-D.Carr left guard to ATL 1 for no gain (90-D.Onyemata).
- (1:04) 41-A.Kamara left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.55 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.23 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.55 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.18 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.16 pts |
| QB keep | +1.03 pts |
| Play action | +0.70 pts |
| Deep post | +0.62 pts |
| Quick out | +0.52 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.42 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.11 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.03 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.04 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Outside run | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -1.24 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.46 pts |
| Spike it | -2.23 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.