Dolphins vs Raiders — Week 11, 2024
The Dolphins took over leading 24-19 with 4:23 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Dolphins 34, Raiders 19. Dolphins won 34-19 — the drive scored.
Dolphins ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 30, 4:23 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 85.8% for Dolphins. Our model starts at 85.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:23) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane up the middle to MIA 37 for 7 yards (5-D.Deablo; 95-J.Jenkins).
- (3:38) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane left tackle to MIA 35 for -2 yards (69-A.Butler).
- (3:32) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane right end to MIA 43 for -1 yards (96-J.Laulu).
- (3:28) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep middle to 9-J.Smith for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.61 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.77 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.61 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.25 pts |
| Outside run | -0.31 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.49 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.61 pts |
| Inside run | -0.71 pts |
| Quick out | -0.74 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.80 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.88 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.93 pts |
| QB keep | -0.95 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.60 pts |
| Play action | -1.96 pts |
| Curl route | -2.29 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.38 pts |
| End-around | -4.42 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.15 pts |
| Deep post | -7.33 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.00 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.77 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.