Patriots vs Rams — Week 11, 2024
The Patriots took over trailing 28-22 with 2:14 left, 1st & 10 at their own 10, 1 timeout in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 22, Rams 28. Rams won 28-22 — the drive turnover.
Patriots ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. Backed up at their own 10, 2:14 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 16.9% for Patriots. Our model starts at 9.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:14) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short right to 85-H.Henry (3-K.Curl).
- (2:11) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 84-K.Bourne ran ob at NE 28 for 18 yards (4-A.Witherspoon). Penalty on LA-4-A.Witherspoon, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
- (2:06) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to NE 32 for 4 yards (55-B.Fiske; 56-C.Rozeboom).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye sacked at NE 25 for -7 yards (0-B.Young).
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle intended for 3-D.Douglas INTERCEPTED by 26-K.Kinchens at LA 48. 26-K.Kinchens to NE 43 for 9 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (-0.36 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.50 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | -0.36 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.47 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Deep post | -0.68 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.70 pts |
| Quick out | -0.73 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.75 pts |
| QB keep | -0.78 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.79 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.86 pts |
| Play action | -1.03 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.04 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.08 pts |
| Spike it | -1.09 pts |
| Inside run | -1.40 pts |
| Outside run | -1.46 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.50 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.