Falcons vs Saints — Week 10, 2024
The Falcons took over trailing 20-17 with 1:35 left, 1st & 10 at their own 14, 1 timeout in hand, against the Saints.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 17, Saints 20. Saints won 20-17 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Falcons ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 14, 1:35 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 22.4% for Falcons. Our model starts at 24.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:35) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left to 5-D.London to ATL 25 for 11 yards (5-W.Harris; 56-D.Davis).
- (1:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 1-D.Mooney to ATL 46 for 21 yards (31-J.Howden).
- (:41) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins sacked at ATL 42 for -9 yards (99-C.Young). FUMBLES (99-C.Young) [99-C.Young], touched at ATL 42, recovered by ATL-70-Ja.Matthews at ATL 32.
- (:34) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left to 8-K.Pitts ran ob at ATL 39 for 7 yards (1-A.Taylor).
- (:28) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle to 8-K.Pitts to NO 43 for 18 yards (0-U.Amadi, 5-W.Harris).
- (:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left to 34-R.McCloud pushed ob at NO 44 for -1 yards (0-U.Amadi).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.41 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-2.56 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.41 pts |
| Deep post | +0.29 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.13 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.27 pts |
| Play action | -0.41 pts |
| QB keep | -0.44 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.62 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.71 pts |
| Quick out | -0.93 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.98 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.01 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.20 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.56 pts |
| Outside run | -1.99 pts |
| Spike it | -2.22 pts |
| Inside run | -2.31 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.56 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.