Vikings vs Rams — Week 8, 2024
The Vikings took over trailing 28-20 with 1:46 left, 1st & 10 at their own 5, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 20, Rams 30. Rams won 30-20 — the drive turned it over.
Vikings ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. Backed up at their own 5, 1:46 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 3.0% for Vikings. Our model starts at 3.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:46) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep left to 3-J.Addison. Penalty on MIN, Illegal Formation, declined.
- (1:42) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked in End Zone for -5 yards, SAFETY (0-B.Young).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (-0.16 pts), and the weakest was Outside run (-0.76 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | -0.16 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.28 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.36 pts |
| Quick out | -0.37 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.38 pts |
| QB keep | -0.38 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.43 pts |
| Curl route | -0.43 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.45 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.46 pts |
| Spike it | -0.46 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.47 pts |
| Play action | -0.53 pts |
| Inside run | -0.72 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.75 pts |
| Outside run | -0.76 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.