Colts vs Packers — Week 2, 2024
The Colts took over trailing 16-10 with 0:43 left, 1st & 10 at their own 5, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Colts 10, Packers 16. Packers won 16-10 — the drive turnover.
Colts ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. Backed up at their own 5, 0:43 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 5.9% for Colts. Our model starts at 5.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (:43) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass short middle to 14-A.Pierce to IND 20 for 15 yards (33-E.Williams).
- (:27) (No Huddle) 5-A.Richardson spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:26) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass incomplete deep right to 10-A.Mitchell.
- (:20) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson scrambles left end ran ob at IND 41 for 21 yards (58-I.McDuffie).
- (:09) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass incomplete deep left to 85-A.Ogletree.
- (:05) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep right INTERCEPTED by 33-E.Williams at GB 7. 33-E.Williams to GB 8 for 1 yard (83-K.Granson).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (-0.20 pts), and the weakest was Outside run (-1.21 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | -0.20 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.54 pts |
| Quick out | -0.56 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.57 pts |
| QB keep | -0.58 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.60 pts |
| Curl route | -0.65 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.65 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.66 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.70 pts |
| Spike it | -0.70 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.70 pts |
| Play action | -0.80 pts |
| Inside run | -1.13 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.19 pts |
| Outside run | -1.21 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.