Cowboys vs 49ers — Week 8, 2024
The Cowboys took over trailing 30-24 with 3:05 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 0 timeouts in hand, against the 49ers.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 24, 49ers 30. 49ers won 30-24 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Cowboys ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 3:05 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 16.4% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 12.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 88-C.Lamb (54-F.Warner).
- (3:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right.
- (2:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 9-K.Turpin.
- (2:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 83-J.Brooks.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.05 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.32 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.05 pts |
| Deep post | +0.85 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.74 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.68 pts |
| QB keep | +0.58 pts |
| Play action | +0.45 pts |
| Quick out | +0.29 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.23 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.21 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.19 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.31 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.40 pts |
| Outside run | -0.69 pts |
| Inside run | -1.00 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.11 pts |
| Spike it | -1.32 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.