Raiders vs Rams — Week 7, 2024
The Raiders took over trailing 20-15 with 1:39 left, 1st & 10 at their own 11, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 15, Rams 20. Rams won 20-15 — the drive turnover.
Raiders ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 11, 1:39 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 13.1% for Raiders. Our model starts at 11.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:39) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass incomplete short left to 11-T.Tucker (30-J.Wallace).
- (1:34) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass incomplete deep right to 11-T.Tucker (4-A.Witherspoon) [8-J.Verse].
- (1:28) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass deep right intended for 19-D.Turner INTERCEPTED by 39-J.McCollough [8-J.Verse] at LV 34. 39-J.McCollough to LV 32 for 2 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.16 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.72 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.16 pts |
| Curl route | -0.22 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.38 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.58 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.63 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Play action | -0.69 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.70 pts |
| QB keep | -0.90 pts |
| Quick out | -0.90 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.92 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.97 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.04 pts |
| Spike it | -1.26 pts |
| Inside run | -1.60 pts |
| Outside run | -1.67 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.72 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.