Colts vs Jaguars — Week 5, 2024
The Colts took over trailing 34-27 with 3:25 left, 1st & 10 at their own 23, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Colts 34, Jaguars 37. Jaguars won 37-34 — the drive scored.
Colts ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 23, 3:25 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 13.3% for Colts. Our model starts at 10.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:25) (Shotgun) 27-T.Sermon up the middle to IND 35 for 17 yards (5-A.Cisco).
- (2:50) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep right to 14-A.Pierce for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.87 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.18 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.87 pts |
| Deep post | +0.72 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.60 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.56 pts |
| QB keep | +0.46 pts |
| Play action | +0.34 pts |
| Quick out | +0.21 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.16 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.14 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.13 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.03 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.31 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.38 pts |
| Outside run | -0.71 pts |
| Inside run | -0.97 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.06 pts |
| Spike it | -1.18 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.