Jaguars vs Browns — Week 2, 2024
The Jaguars took over trailing 18-13 with 1:27 left, 1st & 10 at their own 10, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 13, Browns 18. Browns won 18-13 — the drive time expired.
Jaguars ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. Backed up at their own 10, 1:27 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 13.5% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 11.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:27) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short middle to 13-C.Kirk (58-J.Hicks).
- (1:22) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 0-G.Davis to JAX 32 for 22 yards (6-J.Owusu-Koramoah). CLE-54-O.Okoronkwo was injured during the play.
- (1:10) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles right end to JAX 44 for 12 yards (6-J.Owusu-Koramoah).
- (:36) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep left to 13-C.Kirk (33-R.Hickman).
- (:26) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 7-B.Thomas to CLE 33 for 28 yards (6-J.Owusu-Koramoah).
- (:09) (No Huddle) 16-T.Lawrence spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:08) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep middle.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.08 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.67 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.08 pts |
| Curl route | -0.35 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.50 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.65 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.69 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.70 pts |
| Play action | -0.80 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.84 pts |
| Quick out | -0.88 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.90 pts |
| QB keep | -0.92 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.94 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.02 pts |
| Spike it | -1.22 pts |
| Inside run | -1.57 pts |
| Outside run | -1.63 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.67 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.