Titans vs Colts — Week 6, 2024
The Titans took over trailing 20-17 with 3:49 left, 1st & 10 at their own 6, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Titans 17, Colts 20. Colts won 20-17 — the drive turned it over.
Titans ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. Backed up at their own 6, 3:49 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 31.7% for Titans. Our model starts at 30.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:49) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass incomplete deep middle to 0-C.Ridley.
- (3:45) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to TEN 14 for 8 yards (45-E.Speed).
- (3:05) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short right to 83-T.Boyd to TEN 22 for 8 yards (23-K.Moore).
- (2:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short left to 83-T.Boyd pushed ob at TEN 25 for 3 yards (40-J.Jones).
- (2:35) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass incomplete short right to 0-C.Ridley (33-S.Womack).
- (2:30) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass incomplete deep left to 10-D.Hopkins (40-J.Jones).
- (2:26) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 75 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB sneak (-1.13 pts), and the weakest was Deep corner (-2.72 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB sneak | -1.13 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.42 pts |
| QB keep | -1.52 pts |
| Quick out | -1.53 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.57 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.62 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.73 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.79 pts |
| Curl route | -1.91 pts |
| Outside run | -2.09 pts |
| Deep post | -2.12 pts |
| Inside run | -2.13 pts |
| Play action | -2.39 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.46 pts |
| Spike it | -2.50 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.51 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.72 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.