Texans vs Jaguars — Week 4, 2024

What really happened

Final: Texans 24, Jaguars 20. Texans won 24-20 — the drive scored.

Texans ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 31, 2:54 on the clock.

nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 37.6% for Texans. Our model starts at 33.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.

The real drive, snap by snap

1. (2:54) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud scrambles left end ran ob at HOU 42 for 11 yards (48-C.Muma). PENALTY on JAX-26-A.Johnson, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 42.
2. (2:47) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 12-N.Collins to JAX 27 for 26 yards (51-V.Miller).
3. (2:03) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 33-D.Ogunbowale to JAX 21 for 6 yards (25-R.Darby).
4. (1:55) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins to JAX 15 for 6 yards (25-R.Darby).
5. (1:13) (Shotgun) 33-D.Ogunbowale up the middle to JAX 9 for 6 yards (56-Y.Abdullah, 51-V.Miller).
6. (1:08) (Shotgun) 33-D.Ogunbowale up the middle to JAX 8 for 1 yard (94-M.Smith).
7. (1:04) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 86-D.Schultz to JAX 2 for 6 yards (94-M.Smith).
8. (:30) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud scrambles up the middle to JAX 1 for 1 yard (94-M.Smith, 48-C.Muma).
9. (:22) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 33-D.Ogunbowale for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The opening call, by win probability

At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.73 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.65 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.

This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.