Bears vs Texans — Week 2, 2024
The Bears took over trailing 19-13 with 1:37 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Bears 13, Texans 19. Texans won 19-13 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Bears ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 20, 1:37 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 14.1% for Bears. Our model starts at 8.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:37) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 15-R.Odunze to CHI 47 for 27 yards (20-J.Ward).
- (1:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short right to 14-G.Everett.
- (1:07) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams sacked at CHI 39 for -8 yards (55-D.Hunter).
- (:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams scrambles left end to CHI 40 for 1 yard (5-J.Pitre; 0-A.Al-Shaair). Penalty on CHI-70-B.Jones, Illegal Formation, declined.
- (:34) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete deep right to 15-R.Odunze.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+1.04 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-0.90 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +1.04 pts |
| Curl route | +0.93 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.64 pts |
| QB keep | +0.58 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.56 pts |
| Play action | +0.42 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.35 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.35 pts |
| Quick out | +0.25 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.21 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.03 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.22 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.24 pts |
| Outside run | -0.62 pts |
| Inside run | -0.84 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.89 pts |
| Spike it | -0.90 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.