Jets vs Broncos — Week 4, 2024
The Jets took over trailing 10-9 with 2:31 left, 1st & 10 at their own 33, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Jets 9, Broncos 10. Broncos won 10-9 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Jets ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 33, 2:31 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 54.6% for Jets. Our model starts at 52.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:31) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 10-A.Lazard to NYJ 41 for 8 yards (21-R.Moss).
- (2:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 83-T.Conklin to NYJ 45 for 4 yards (6-P.Locke).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 5-G.Wilson (2-P.Surtain) [97-M.Roach].
- (1:57) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep middle to 5-G.Wilson.
- (1:53) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 82-X.Gipson.
- (1:50) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at NYJ 35 for -10 yards (6-P.Locke).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+2.01 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-4.24 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +2.01 pts |
| QB keep | +1.32 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.32 pts |
| Curl route | +1.31 pts |
| Quick out | +1.08 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.94 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.60 pts |
| Outside run | +0.06 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.05 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.61 pts |
| Inside run | -0.91 pts |
| Play action | -1.41 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.42 pts |
| Spike it | -2.99 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.27 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.56 pts |
| Deep post | -4.24 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.