Cardinals vs Bills — Week 1, 2024
The Cardinals took over trailing 34-28 with 1:56 left, 1st & 10 at their own 40, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bills.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 28, Bills 34. Bills won 34-28 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Cardinals ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 40, 1:56 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 18.5% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 15.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep right to 14-Mi.Wilson.
- (1:51) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 85-T.McBride to ARI 45 for 5 yards (43-T.Bernard).
- (1:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 4-G.Dortch pushed ob at BUF 43 for 12 yards (39-C.Lewis).
- (1:28) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 85-T.McBride to BUF 39 for 4 yards (42-Do.Williams).
- (1:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 4-G.Dortch pushed ob at BUF 32 for 7 yards (42-Do.Williams).
- (:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left to 85-T.McBride.
- (:40) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short middle to 4-G.Dortch. Receiver fell during route.
- (:36) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner right guard to BUF 29 for 3 yards (42-Do.Williams).
- (:32) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep left to 4-G.Dortch (46-J.Ingram). Receiver and coverage along sideline at BUF 2.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.50 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.57 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.50 pts |
| Deep post | +1.36 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.08 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.97 pts |
| QB keep | +0.83 pts |
| Play action | +0.70 pts |
| Quick out | +0.45 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.45 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.44 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.38 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.10 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.33 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.47 pts |
| Outside run | -0.88 pts |
| Inside run | -1.28 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.40 pts |
| Spike it | -1.57 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.