Chiefs vs 49ers — Week 22, 2023
The Chiefs took over trailing 19-16 with 1:53 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the 49ers.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 19, 49ers 19. Tied 19-19 — the drive scored.
Playoff football. Chiefs ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 1:53 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 34.6% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 27.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:53) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to KC 34 for 9 yards (54-F.Warner).
- (1:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end ran ob at KC 37 for 3 yards (54-F.Warner).
- (1:32) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 83-N.Gray to KC 49 for 12 yards (54-F.Warner).
- (1:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 84-Ju.Watson to SF 43 for 8 yards (2-D.Lenoir; 27-J.Brown).
- (:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short left to 84-Ju.Watson.
- (:48) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-J.McKinnon to SF 36 for 7 yards (27-J.Brown).
- (:40) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles up the middle to SF 33 for 3 yards (91-A.Armstead; 98-J.Hargrave).
- (:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right.
- (:16) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce pushed ob at SF 11 for 22 yards (27-J.Brown). SF-27-J.Brown was injured during the play. SF-2-D.Lenoir was injured during the play.
- (:10) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short left to 87-T.Kelce.
- (:06) 7-H.Butker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.07 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.39 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.07 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.61 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.52 pts |
| QB keep | +1.37 pts |
| Deep post | +1.12 pts |
| Play action | +1.05 pts |
| Quick out | +0.76 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.65 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.35 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.29 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.28 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Outside run | -0.60 pts |
| Inside run | -1.32 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.56 pts |
| Spike it | -2.39 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.