Jaguars vs Titans — Week 18, 2023
The Jaguars took over trailing 28-20 with 2:18 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 20, Titans 28. Titans won 28-20 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Jaguars ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 25, 2:18 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 4.6% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 5.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:18) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles up the middle to JAX 33 for 8 yards (38-T.Edmunds).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep left to 0-C.Ridley [49-A.Key].
- (1:53) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 15-T.Jones.
- (1:50) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 17-E.Engram.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.65 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.67 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.65 pts |
| Curl route | +0.57 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.38 pts |
| QB keep | +0.33 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.33 pts |
| Play action | +0.22 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.19 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.19 pts |
| Quick out | +0.13 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.10 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.18 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.19 pts |
| Outside run | -0.50 pts |
| Spike it | -0.62 pts |
| Inside run | -0.63 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.67 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.