Titans vs Colts — Week 5, 2023
The Titans took over trailing 23-16 with 1:00 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Titans 16, Colts 23. Colts won 23-16 — the drive turnover.
Titans ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 25, 1:00 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 6.0% for Titans. Our model starts at 4.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:00) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short right to 85-C.Okonkwo [94-Ty.Lewis].
- (:56) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 85-C.Okonkwo pushed ob at TEN 33 for 8 yards (23-K.Moore).
- (:49) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short middle to 85-C.Okonkwo (94-Ty.Lewis).
- (:45) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 81-J.Whyle to TEN 40 for 7 yards (23-K.Moore; 44-Z.Franklin).
- (:31) (No Huddle) 17-R.Tannehill spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:30) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at TEN 35 for -5 yards (52-S.Ebukam). PENALTY on IND-52-S.Ebukam, Defensive Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 35.
- (:17) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left intended for 10-D.Hopkins INTERCEPTED by 32-J.Blackmon [94-Ty.Lewis] at IND 42. 32-J.Blackmon to TEN 48 for 10 yards (32-T.Spears).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.81 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.70 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.81 pts |
| Curl route | +0.63 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.42 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.36 pts |
| QB keep | +0.28 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.28 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.27 pts |
| Play action | +0.27 pts |
| Quick out | +0.15 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.13 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.00 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.16 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.22 pts |
| Outside run | -0.56 pts |
| Spike it | -0.58 pts |
| Inside run | -0.67 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.70 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.