Chiefs vs Packers — Week 13, 2023

What really happened

Final: Chiefs 19, Packers 27. Packers won 27-19 — the drive turned it over on downs.

Chiefs ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 30, 1:09 on the clock, no timeouts left.

nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 5.0% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 3.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.

The real drive, snap by snap

1. (1:09) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short left to 10-I.Pacheco.
2. (1:05) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end ran ob at KC 40 for 10 yards (34-J.Owens). PENALTY on GB-34-J.Owens, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at KC 40.
3. (:57) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 4-R.Rice to GB 35 for 10 yards (7-Q.Walker; 94-K.Brooks). FUMBLES (7-Q.Walker), touched at GB 34, RECOVERED by GB-35-C.Ballentine at GB 32. 35-C.Ballentine for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 4-R.Rice to GB 35 for 10 yards (7-Q.Walker; 94-K.Brooks). PENALTY on KC-10-I.Pacheco, Disqualification, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
4. (:50) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling (37-C.Valentine).
5. (:44) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 25-C.Edwards-Helaire to GB 42 for 8 yards (7-Q.Walker; 35-C.Ballentine).
6. (:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling pushed ob at GB 33 for 9 yards (35-C.Ballentine).
7. (:19) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep middle to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling.
8. (:14) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep left.
9. (:08) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short left.
10. (:05) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep left (20-R.Ford).

The opening call, by win probability

At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.65 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.58 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.

This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.