Cardinals vs Bears — Week 16, 2023
The Cardinals took over trailing 24-16 with 4:21 left, 1st & 10 at their own 9, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 16, Bears 27. Bears won 27-16 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Cardinals ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. Backed up at their own 9, 4:21 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 6.6% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 9.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:21) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 6-J.Conner to ARI 16 for 7 yards (93-Ju.Jones).
- (3:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left to 83-G.Dortch.
- (3:52) (Shotgun) 31-E.Demercado right end to ARI 23 for 7 yards (49-T.Edmunds).
- (3:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 31-E.Demercado to ARI 27 for 4 yards (53-T.Edwards).
- (3:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short middle to 31-E.Demercado.
- (3:07) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short right to 14-Mi.Wilson (32-T.Smith).
- (3:03) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep right to 83-G.Dortch.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (-0.38 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.27 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.49 pts |
| Curl route | -0.50 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.56 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.65 pts |
| QB keep | -0.67 pts |
| Quick out | -0.69 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.70 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.74 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.75 pts |
| Play action | -0.78 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.79 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.79 pts |
| Spike it | -1.02 pts |
| Inside run | -1.18 pts |
| Outside run | -1.21 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.27 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.