Giants vs Eagles — Week 16, 2023
The Giants took over trailing 33-25 with 1:10 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Giants 25, Eagles 33. Eagles won 33-25 — the drive turnover.
Giants ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 25, 1:10 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 4.6% for Giants. Our model starts at 3.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:03) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass incomplete deep right to 17-W.Robinson.
- (:56) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass incomplete deep right to 17-W.Robinson.
- (:51) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short middle to 12-D.Waller to PHI 48 for 12 yards (24-J.Bradberry, 32-R.Blankenship) [7-H.Reddick].
- (:38) (No Huddle) 2-T.Taylor spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:37) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short right to 26-S.Barkley pushed ob at PHI 46 for 2 yards (24-J.Bradberry).
- (:32) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass incomplete deep left to 17-W.Robinson.
- (:26) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass deep left to 12-D.Waller to PHI 26 for 20 yards (22-K.Ringo).
- (:05) (No Huddle) 2-T.Taylor spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:04) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass deep left intended for 26-S.Barkley INTERCEPTED by 22-K.Ringo at PHI -4. Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.76 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.52 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.76 pts |
| Curl route | +0.44 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.30 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.29 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.28 pts |
| Play action | +0.24 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.24 pts |
| QB keep | +0.12 pts |
| Quick out | +0.09 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.08 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.13 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.19 pts |
| Spike it | -0.41 pts |
| Outside run | -0.44 pts |
| Inside run | -0.50 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.52 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.