Chiefs vs Ravens — Week 21, 2023
The Chiefs took over leading 17-10 with 2:34 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Ravens.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 17, Ravens 10. Chiefs won 17-10 — the drive time expired.
Playoff football. Chiefs ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 25, 2:34 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 93.4% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 94.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:28) 10-I.Pacheco up the middle to KC 44 for -1 yards (58-M.Pierce).
- (2:24) 10-I.Pacheco right tackle to KC 46 for 2 yards (32-M.Williams).
- (2:19) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling to BAL 22 for 32 yards (10-A.Maulet).
- (2:00) 15-P.Mahomes kneels to BAL 23 for -1 yards.
- (1:19) 15-P.Mahomes kneels to BAL 24 for -1 yards.
- (:39) 15-P.Mahomes kneels to BAL 25 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.11 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.99 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.11 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.47 pts |
| Outside run | -0.49 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -0.69 pts |
| Quick out | -1.04 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.07 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.09 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.38 pts |
| QB keep | -1.40 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.65 pts |
| Play action | -2.68 pts |
| Curl route | -3.11 pts |
| End-around | -5.14 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.19 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.09 pts |
| Deep post | -8.77 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.06 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.99 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.