49ers vs Lions — Week 21, 2023
The 49ers took over leading 34-31 with 0:55 left, 1st & 10 at the Lions 44, 1 timeout in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 34, Lions 31. 49ers won 34-31 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Playoff football. 49ers ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. In Lions territory, 0:55 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 97.4% for 49ers. Our model starts at 91.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (:55) 25-E.Mitchell up the middle to DET 42 for 2 yards (92-T.Alualu).
- (:51) 25-E.Mitchell left guard to DET 40 for 2 yards (93-J.Paschal; 92-T.Alualu).
- (:47) 25-E.Mitchell left tackle to DET 40 for no gain (34-A.Anzalone, 79-J.Cominsky).
- (:01) 13-B.Purdy kneels to DET 48 for -3 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.94 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.29 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.94 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.21 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.31 pts |
| Outside run | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.48 pts |
| Quick out | -0.70 pts |
| Inside run | -0.71 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.75 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.82 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.91 pts |
| QB keep | -0.97 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.64 pts |
| Play action | -2.09 pts |
| Curl route | -2.42 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.57 pts |
| End-around | -4.78 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.41 pts |
| Deep post | -7.85 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.42 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.29 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.