Buccaneers vs Lions — Week 20, 2023
The Buccaneers took over trailing 31-23 with 1:59 left, 1st & 10 at their own 10, 1 timeout in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 23, Lions 31. Lions won 31-23 — the drive turnover.
Playoff football. Buccaneers ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. Backed up at their own 10, 1:59 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 4.3% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 4.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:59) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 13-M.Evans to TB 15 for 5 yards (42-J.Reeves-Maybin).
- (1:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 88-C.Otton INTERCEPTED by 55-D.Barnes at TB 28. 55-D.Barnes to TB 28 for no gain (88-C.Otton).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.04 pts), and the weakest was Outside run (-0.84 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.04 pts |
| Curl route | -0.19 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.26 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.30 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.31 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.32 pts |
| Play action | -0.39 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.40 pts |
| Quick out | -0.41 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.42 pts |
| QB keep | -0.43 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.44 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.48 pts |
| Spike it | -0.52 pts |
| Inside run | -0.80 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.84 pts |
| Outside run | -0.84 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.