Broncos vs Commanders — Week 2, 2023
The Broncos took over trailing 35-27 with 0:48 left, 1st & 10 at their own 13, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Broncos 33, Commanders 35. Commanders won 35-33 — the drive scored.
Broncos ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 13, 0:48 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 2.2% for Broncos. Our model starts at 2.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (:48) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 14-C.Sutton pushed ob at DEN 20 for 12 yards (13-E.Forbes).
- (:42) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short left to 89-B.Johnson.
- (:35) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short left to 10-J.Jeudy (29-K.Fuller).
- (:28) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles left guard to DEN 34 for 14 yards (31-K.Curl).
- (:10) (No Huddle) 3-R.Wilson spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:09) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton ran ob at 50 for 16 yards.
- (:03) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 89-B.Johnson for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN [57-C.Barton].
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 3-R.Wilson pass to 14-C.Sutton is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.18 pts), and the weakest was Outside run (-0.56 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.18 pts |
| Curl route | +0.00 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.07 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.09 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.09 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.14 pts |
| Play action | -0.15 pts |
| QB keep | -0.21 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.21 pts |
| Quick out | -0.23 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.23 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.28 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.28 pts |
| Spike it | -0.31 pts |
| Inside run | -0.54 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.55 pts |
| Outside run | -0.56 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.