Bengals vs Chiefs — Week 17, 2023
The Bengals took over trailing 25-17 with 2:59 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Chiefs.
What really happened
Final: Bengals 17, Chiefs 25. Chiefs won 25-17 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Bengals ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 25, 2:59 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 5.9% for Bengals. Our model starts at 7.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:59) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short right to 87-T.Hudson to CIN 40 for 15 yards (50-W.Gay). CIN-65-A.Cappa was injured during the play.
- (2:39) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short right to 28-J.Mixon to CIN 45 for 5 yards (90-C.Omenihu).
- (2:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Browning sacked at CIN 38 for -7 yards (20-J.Reid).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning sacked at CIN 32 for -6 yards (20-J.Reid).
- (1:51) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep middle to 83-T.Boyd to KC 45 for 23 yards (27-C.Conner).
- (1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Browning sacked at CIN 49 for -6 yards (56-G.Karlaftis).
- (1:24) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning sacked at CIN 38 for -11 yards (95-C.Jones).
- (1:19) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass incomplete deep middle to 16-T.Irwin [95-C.Jones].
- (1:14) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass incomplete deep right to 5-T.Higgins (2-J.Williams).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+1.01 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.89 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +1.01 pts |
| Curl route | +0.69 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.46 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.42 pts |
| Play action | +0.40 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.37 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.36 pts |
| QB keep | +0.22 pts |
| Quick out | +0.16 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.12 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.04 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.24 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.35 pts |
| Outside run | -0.68 pts |
| Inside run | -0.83 pts |
| Spike it | -0.85 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.89 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.