Lions vs Buccaneers — Week 20, 2023
The Lions took over leading 31-23 with 4:37 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Lions 31, Buccaneers 23. Lions won 31-23 — the drive turned it over.
Playoff football. Lions ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 25, 4:37 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.4% for Lions. Our model starts at 92.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:37) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to DET 40 for 15 yards (24-C.Davis).
- (3:56) 5-D.Montgomery right tackle to TB 49 for 11 yards (23-R.Neal).
- (3:02) 5-D.Montgomery right tackle to TB 41 for 3 yards (50-V.Vea, 45-D.White).
- (2:54) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 5-D.Montgomery to TB 45 for -4 yards (54-L.David).
- (2:10) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 14-A.St. Brown.
- (2:06) 3-J.Fox punts 35 yards to TB 10, Center-43-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.18 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.87 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.18 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.48 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.54 pts |
| Outside run | -0.54 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.70 pts |
| Inside run | -0.76 pts |
| Quick out | -1.09 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.13 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.16 pts |
| QB keep | -1.44 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.45 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.71 pts |
| Play action | -2.69 pts |
| Curl route | -3.12 pts |
| End-around | -5.09 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.18 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.06 pts |
| Deep post | -8.66 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.97 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.87 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.