Chiefs vs Bills — Week 20, 2023
The Chiefs took over leading 27-24 with 1:43 left, 1st & 10 at their own 34, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bills.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 27, Bills 24. Chiefs won 27-24 — the drive time expired.
Playoff football. Chiefs ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 34, 1:43 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 89.5% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 84.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:43) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco right guard to KC 42 for 8 yards (25-T.Dodson).
- (1:37) 10-I.Pacheco right guard to KC 45 for 3 yards (23-M.Hyde).
- (1:30) 15-P.Mahomes kneels to KC 44 for -1 yards.
- (:52) 15-P.Mahomes kneels to KC 43 for -1 yards.
- (:27) 15-P.Mahomes kneels to KC 42 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.44 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.21 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.44 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.27 pts |
| Outside run | -0.10 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.29 pts |
| Quick out | -0.32 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.36 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.40 pts |
| QB keep | -0.47 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.52 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.53 pts |
| Inside run | -0.61 pts |
| Play action | -1.34 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.48 pts |
| Curl route | -1.57 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.76 pts |
| End-around | -4.09 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.50 pts |
| Deep post | -6.52 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.46 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.21 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.