Packers vs 49ers — Week 20, 2023
The Packers took over trailing 24-21 with 1:07 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the 49ers.
What really happened
Final: Packers 21, 49ers 24. 49ers won 24-21 — the drive turnover.
Playoff football. Packers ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 1:07 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 27.6% for Packers. Our model starts at 26.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:07) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 87-R.Doubs pushed ob at GB 33 for 8 yards (20-A.Thomas).
- (1:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 87-R.Doubs.
- (:59) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 88-L.Musgrave to GB 36 for 3 yards (57-D.Greenlaw, 20-A.Thomas).
- (:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle intended for 9-C.Watson INTERCEPTED by 57-D.Greenlaw [97-N.Bosa] at SF 42. 57-D.Greenlaw to GB 40 for 18 yards (11-J.Reed).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.32 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.40 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.32 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.78 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.66 pts |
| Deep post | +1.50 pts |
| QB keep | +1.47 pts |
| Play action | +1.19 pts |
| Quick out | +0.85 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.73 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.55 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.50 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.33 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.35 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.60 pts |
| Outside run | -0.86 pts |
| Inside run | -1.56 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.80 pts |
| Spike it | -2.40 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.