Lions vs Rams — Week 19, 2023
The Lions took over leading 24-23 with 4:07 left, 1st & 10 at their own 17, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: Lions 24, Rams 23. Lions won 24-23 — the drive time expired.
Playoff football. Lions ball, up 1 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 17, 4:07 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 72.9% for Lions. Our model starts at 61.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:07) (Shotgun) 5-D.Montgomery right tackle to DET 20 for 3 yards (99-A.Donald).
- (3:24) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 5-D.Montgomery to DET 31 for 11 yards (2-R.Yeast).
- (2:38) 5-D.Montgomery right tackle to DET 32 for 1 yard (53-E.Jones; 56-C.Rozeboom).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown to DET 43 for 11 yards (37-Q.Lake).
- (1:54) 16-J.Goff kneels to DET 42 for -1 yards.
- (1:13) 16-J.Goff kneels to DET 41 for -1 yards.
- (:39) 16-J.Goff kneels to DET 40 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.14 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-6.46 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.14 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.09 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.16 pts |
| QB keep | -0.23 pts |
| Outside run | -0.52 pts |
| Quick out | -0.62 pts |
| Curl route | -0.64 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.72 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.91 pts |
| Play action | -1.09 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.13 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.16 pts |
| Inside run | -1.29 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.88 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.87 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.31 pts |
| End-around | -3.47 pts |
| Deep post | -4.16 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.38 pts |
| Flea flicker | -6.46 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.