Seahawks vs Cardinals — Week 18, 2023
The Seahawks took over trailing 20-13 with 2:56 left, 1st & 10 at their own 33, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 21, Cardinals 20. Seahawks won 21-20 — the drive scored.
Seahawks ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 33, 2:56 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 12.0% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 10.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:56) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 84-C.Parkinson to SEA 38 for 5 yards (18-B.Ojulari).
- (2:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 26-Z.Charbonnet to ARI 49 for 13 yards (18-B.Ojulari).
- (2:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 26-Z.Charbonnet to ARI 34 for 15 yards (3-B.Baker).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 7-G.Smith pass to 16-T.Lockett is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.94 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.13 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.94 pts |
| Deep post | +0.86 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.66 pts |
| QB keep | +0.64 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.60 pts |
| Play action | +0.40 pts |
| Quick out | +0.25 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.23 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.22 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.20 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.01 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.28 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.28 pts |
| Outside run | -0.61 pts |
| Inside run | -0.89 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.97 pts |
| Spike it | -1.13 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.