Patriots vs Jets — Week 18, 2023
The Patriots took over trailing 9-3 with 3:37 left, 1st & 10 at their own 40, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 3, Jets 17. Jets won 17-3 — the drive turnover.
Patriots ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 40, 3:37 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 21.4% for Patriots. Our model starts at 19.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:37) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe sacked at NE 24 for -16 yards (99-W.McDonald).
- (3:00) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass deep middle intended for 83-J.Reagor INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Davis at NYJ 42. 21-A.Davis to NE 44 for 14 yards (88-M.Gesicki). FUMBLES (88-M.Gesicki), RECOVERED by NE-59-V.Lowe at NE 41. NE-59-V.Lowe was injured during the play.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.30 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.91 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.30 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.22 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.96 pts |
| Quick out | +0.64 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.56 pts |
| QB keep | +0.54 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.28 pts |
| Play action | -0.05 pts |
| Deep post | -0.14 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.21 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.60 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.65 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.67 pts |
| Outside run | -0.90 pts |
| Inside run | -1.34 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.52 pts |
| Spike it | -1.91 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.