Broncos vs Texans — Week 13, 2023
The Broncos took over trailing 22-17 with 4:36 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Broncos 17, Texans 22. Texans won 22-17 — the drive turnover.
Broncos ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 20, 4:36 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 22.1% for Broncos. Our model starts at 20.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:36) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 14-C.Sutton to HOU 48 for 32 yards (1-J.Ward).
- (3:55) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 19-M.Mims pushed ob at HOU 43 for 5 yards (21-S.Nelson).
- (3:48) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams left tackle to HOU 42 for 1 yard (52-J.Greenard).
- (2:59) 75-Q.Bailey reported in as eligible. 33-J.Williams left tackle to HOU 30 for 1 yard (35-J.Hansen, 48-C.Harris).
- (2:17) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 38-J.McLaughlin pushed ob at HOU 29 for 1 yard (5-J.Pitre).
- (2:11) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles left end to HOU 22 for 7 yards (48-C.Harris, 98-S.Rankins).
- (2:00) 33-J.Williams right tackle to HOU 21 for 1 yard (25-D.King).
- (1:19) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 33-J.Williams to HOU 17 for 4 yards (35-J.Hansen, 53-B.Cashman).
- (:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 10-J.Jeudy ran ob at HOU 13 for 4 yards (25-D.King).
- (:35) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right.
- (:30) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles up the middle to HOU 8 for 5 yards (96-M.Collins).
- (:23) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short middle to 82-A.Trautman.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.96 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.96 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.96 pts |
| QB keep | +0.85 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.73 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.70 pts |
| Play action | +0.31 pts |
| Quick out | +0.24 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.16 pts |
| Deep post | +0.12 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.09 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.27 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.33 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.50 pts |
| Outside run | -0.52 pts |
| Inside run | -1.03 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.21 pts |
| Spike it | -1.96 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.