Cardinals vs Texans — Week 11, 2023
The Cardinals took over trailing 21-16 with 4:58 left, 1st & 10 at their own 19, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 16, Texans 21. Texans won 21-16 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Cardinals ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 19, 4:58 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 21.7% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 20.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:58) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray left end to ARI 22 for 3 yards (55-J.Hughes).
- (4:23) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep middle to 83-G.Dortch (24-D.Stingley).
- (4:18) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 2-M.Brown to ARI 30 for 13 yards (21-S.Nelson).
- (3:34) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 83-G.Dortch to HOU 39 for 31 yards (53-B.Cashman; 30-D.Houston-Carson).
- (2:47) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 83-G.Dortch to HOU 35 for 4 yards (53-B.Cashman).
- (2:08) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 6-J.Conner to HOU 29 for 6 yards (48-C.Harris).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 6-J.Conner to HOU 34 for -5 yards (48-C.Harris).
- (1:23) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 87-G.Swaim to HOU 27 for 7 yards (53-B.Cashman; 30-D.Houston-Carson).
- (:40) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short right to 2-M.Brown (48-C.Harris) [5-J.Pitre].
- (:35) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep left to 2-M.Brown (21-S.Nelson) [51-W.Anderson].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.68 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.93 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.68 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.48 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.47 pts |
| QB keep | +0.38 pts |
| Play action | +0.09 pts |
| Quick out | +0.02 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.05 pts |
| Deep post | -0.13 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.27 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.46 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.53 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.63 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.71 pts |
| Outside run | -0.76 pts |
| Inside run | -1.21 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.39 pts |
| Spike it | -1.93 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.