Lions vs Cowboys — Week 17, 2023
The Lions took over trailing 17-13 with 2:33 left, 1st & 10 at their own 11, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Cowboys.
What really happened
Final: Lions 19, Cowboys 20. Cowboys won 20-19 — the drive turnover.
Lions ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 11, 2:33 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 20.5% for Lions. Our model starts at 20.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:33) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to DET 26 for 15 yards (6-D.Wilson).
- (2:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left intended for 87-S.LaPorta INTERCEPTED by 6-D.Wilson at DET 29. 6-D.Wilson to DET 29 for no gain (87-S.LaPorta).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (-0.44 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-2.29 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | -0.44 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.58 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.88 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.91 pts |
| Quick out | -1.20 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.24 pts |
| QB keep | -1.25 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.30 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.40 pts |
| Deep post | -1.60 pts |
| Play action | -1.72 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.96 pts |
| Spike it | -1.99 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.06 pts |
| Inside run | -2.07 pts |
| Outside run | -2.10 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.29 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.