Giants vs Bills — Week 6, 2023
The Giants took over trailing 14-9 with 3:48 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bills.
What really happened
Final: Giants 9, Bills 14. Bills won 14-9 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Giants ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 3:48 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 20.7% for Giants. Our model starts at 20.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:48) 2-T.Taylor pass short right to 17-W.Robinson pushed ob at NYG 30 for 5 yards (47-C.Benford).
- (3:41) 26-S.Barkley right guard to NYG 29 for -1 yards (43-T.Bernard).
- (3:02) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short left to 12-D.Waller to NYG 36 for 7 yards (7-Ta.Johnson).
- (2:30) 2-T.Taylor pass short left to 12-D.Waller to NYG 41 for 5 yards (21-J.Poyer).
- (2:03) (No Huddle) 26-S.Barkley right tackle to NYG 38 for -3 yards (50-G.Rousseau).
- (1:59) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass incomplete deep right to 13-J.Hyatt [56-L.Floyd].
- (1:52) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass incomplete deep left to 86-D.Slayton (47-C.Benford).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.22 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.97 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.22 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.90 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.89 pts |
| QB keep | +0.78 pts |
| Deep post | +0.49 pts |
| Play action | +0.48 pts |
| Quick out | +0.35 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.27 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.01 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.05 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.11 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.46 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.54 pts |
| Outside run | -0.72 pts |
| Inside run | -1.21 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.40 pts |
| Spike it | -1.97 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.