Cowboys vs Eagles — Week 9, 2023
The Cowboys took over trailing 28-23 with 4:43 left, 1st & 10 at their own 26, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 23, Eagles 28. Eagles won 28-23 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Cowboys ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 26, 4:43 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 23.1% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 22.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 88-C.Lamb to DAL 47 for 21 yards (21-S.Brown).
- (4:07) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard left guard to 50 for 3 yards (94-J.Sweat; 91-F.Cox).
- (3:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 3-B.Cooks to PHI 43 for 7 yards (39-E.Ricks). Penalty on PHI-24-J.Bradberry, Illegal Contact, declined.
- (3:29) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 88-C.Lamb.
- (3:23) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 20-T.Pollard.
- (3:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 87-J.Ferguson to PHI 31 for 12 yards (52-Z.Cunningham).
- (2:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at PHI 38 for -7 yards (55-B.Graham).
- (2:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at PHI 42 for -4 yards (sack split by 98-J.Carter and 55-B.Graham).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to PHI 29 for 13 yards (2-D.Slay).
- (1:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 18-J.Tolbert (24-J.Bradberry).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.98 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.08 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.98 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.77 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.73 pts |
| Play action | +0.62 pts |
| Deep post | +0.59 pts |
| QB keep | +0.40 pts |
| Quick out | +0.26 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.17 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.06 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.02 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.08 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.52 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.72 pts |
| Outside run | -0.83 pts |
| Inside run | -1.29 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.51 pts |
| Spike it | -2.08 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.