49ers vs Rams — Week 18, 2023
The 49ers took over trailing 21-20 with 4:56 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 20, Rams 21. Rams won 21-20 — the drive turned it over.
49ers ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 4:56 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 52.4% for 49ers. Our model starts at 46.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:56) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep left to 3-R.McCloud (2-R.Yeast).
- (4:45) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 84-C.Conley [92-J.Williams].
- (4:41) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at SF 18 for -7 yards (97-M.Hoecht).
- (4:00) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 61 yards to LA 21, Center-46-T.Pepper. 81-A.Trammell to LA 34 for 13 yards (36-J.McNichols; 53-D.Winters).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.82 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.94 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.82 pts |
| QB keep | +0.67 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.54 pts |
| Curl route | +0.45 pts |
| Quick out | +0.14 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.02 pts |
| Play action | -0.17 pts |
| Outside run | -0.19 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.25 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.70 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.71 pts |
| Inside run | -0.98 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.45 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.68 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.96 pts |
| Deep post | -2.29 pts |
| Spike it | -2.94 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.