Jets vs Commanders — Week 16, 2023
The Jets took over trailing 28-27 with 4:52 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Jets 30, Commanders 28. Jets won 30-28 — the drive turned it over.
Jets ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 4:52 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 52.6% for Jets. Our model starts at 47.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:52) (Shotgun) 14-T.Siemian pass short middle to 20-Bre.Hall to NYJ 31 for 6 yards (47-K.Hudson).
- (4:24) (Shotgun) 14-T.Siemian pass incomplete short left to 17-G.Wilson (47-K.Hudson).
- (4:20) (Shotgun) 14-T.Siemian pass short left to 20-Bre.Hall to NYJ 34 for 3 yards (57-C.Barton).
- (3:56) (No Huddle) 14-T.Siemian up the middle to NYJ 36 for 2 yards (96-J.Smith-Williams).
- (3:25) (Shotgun) 14-T.Siemian pass short right to 17-G.Wilson to NYJ 47 for 11 yards (29-K.Fuller).
- (2:34) (Shotgun) 14-T.Siemian pass incomplete short right.
- (2:28) (Shotgun) 14-T.Siemian pass incomplete deep left to 20-Bre.Hall (47-K.Hudson) [93-J.Allen].
- (2:22) (Shotgun) 14-T.Siemian pass incomplete short middle to 20-Bre.Hall.
- (2:16) 5-T.Morstead punts 43 yards to WAS 20, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 83-J.Crowder pushed ob at WAS 25 for 5 yards (44-J.Sherwood).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.82 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.96 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.82 pts |
| QB keep | +0.66 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.54 pts |
| Curl route | +0.43 pts |
| Quick out | +0.13 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.01 pts |
| Play action | -0.20 pts |
| Outside run | -0.20 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.26 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.70 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.72 pts |
| Inside run | -1.00 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.48 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.75 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.03 pts |
| Deep post | -2.41 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.