Saints vs Jaguars — Week 7, 2023
The Saints took over tied at 24 with 4:30 left, 1st & 10 at their own 10, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Saints 24, Jaguars 31. Jaguars won 31-24 — the drive turned it over.
Saints ball, even score — any score wins it. Backed up at their own 10, 4:30 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 52.9% for Saints. Our model starts at 53.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short middle to 12-C.Olave [41-J.Allen].
- (4:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 7-T.Hill to NO 16 for 6 yards (23-F.Oluokun).
- (4:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep right to 22-R.Shaheed. NO-4-D.Carr was injured during the play.
- (3:54) 39-L.Hedley punts 39 yards to JAX 45, Center-49-Z.Wood. 39-J.Agnew ran ob at NO 46 for 9 yards (45-N.Sewell).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.64 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-4.15 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.64 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.07 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.43 pts |
| Outside run | -1.50 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.62 pts |
| QB keep | -1.66 pts |
| Inside run | -1.69 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.77 pts |
| Quick out | -1.81 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.87 pts |
| Curl route | -1.89 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.99 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.27 pts |
| Play action | -2.30 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.41 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.81 pts |
| Deep post | -4.15 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.