Falcons vs Texans — Week 5, 2023
The Falcons took over trailing 19-18 with 1:49 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 21, Texans 19. Falcons won 21-19 — the drive scored.
Falcons ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 1:49 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 51.7% for Falcons. Our model starts at 48.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:49) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short left to 7-B.Robinson pushed ob at ATL 31 for 6 yards (21-S.Nelson).
- (1:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short left to 5-D.London to ATL 36 for 5 yards (21-S.Nelson).
- (1:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder scrambles left end pushed ob at ATL 41 for 5 yards (25-G.Arnold).
- (1:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short left to 5-D.London pushed ob at ATL 47 for 6 yards (21-S.Nelson).
- (1:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short left to 8-K.Pitts to HOU 49 for 4 yards (21-S.Nelson).
- (:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass deep left to 5-D.London to HOU 26 for 23 yards (5-J.Pitre).
- (:47) 25-T.Allgeier left end to HOU 17 for 4 yards (96-M.Collins).
- (:41) 9-D.Ridder kneels to HOU 18 for -1 yards.
- (:37) 9-D.Ridder kneels to HOU 19 for -1 yards.
- (:02) 6-Y.Koo 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. Penalty on HOU-25-G.Arnold, Defensive Offside, declined. Penalty on HOU-25-G.Arnold, Running Into the Kicker, declined.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB keep (+1.96 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-3.00 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB keep | +1.96 pts |
| Curl route | +1.82 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.77 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.65 pts |
| Quick out | +0.85 pts |
| Play action | +0.83 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.70 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.33 pts |
| Outside run | +0.27 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.67 pts |
| Inside run | -0.79 pts |
| Deep post | -0.87 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.91 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.24 pts |
| Spike it | -3.00 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.