Cardinals vs Falcons — Week 10, 2023

What really happened

Final: Cardinals 25, Falcons 23. Cardinals won 25-23 — the drive scored.

Cardinals ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 2:33 on the clock.

nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 52.1% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 48.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.

The real drive, snap by snap

1. (2:33) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 4-R.Moore to ARI 33 for 8 yards (53-N.Landman).
2. (2:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Conner up the middle to ARI 42 for 9 yards (3-J.Bates).
3. (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep left to 14-Mi.Wilson.
4. (1:56) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep right to 4-R.Moore.
5. (1:50) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles right end to ATL 45 for 13 yards (53-N.Landman).
6. (1:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray left tackle to ATL 42 for 3 yards (34-C.Phillips).
7. (:57) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 85-T.McBride to ATL 9 for 33 yards (3-J.Bates).
8. (:47) 6-J.Conner right guard to ATL 2 for 7 yards (3-J.Bates).
9. (:42) 6-J.Conner left tackle to ATL 3 for -1 yards.
10. (:39) 1-K.Murray kneels to ATL 5 for -2 yards.
11. (:02) 5-M.Prater 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The opening call, by win probability

At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.55 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.99 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.

This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.