Browns vs Steelers — Week 11, 2023
The Browns took over tied at 10 with 3:29 left, 1st & 10 at their own 14, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Browns 13, Steelers 10. Browns won 13-10 — the drive turned it over.
Browns ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 14, 3:29 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 55.7% for Browns. Our model starts at 53.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:29) (Shotgun) 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass short left to 27-K.Hunt to CLE 13 for -1 yards (50-E.Roberts).
- (2:49) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt right guard to CLE 29 for 16 yards (97-C.Heyward, 23-D.Kazee).
- (2:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete short right to 85-D.Njoku.
- (2:23) (Shotgun) 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass short right to 85-D.Njoku to CLE 32 for 3 yards (50-E.Roberts).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete short right to 85-D.Njoku.
- (1:56) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 59 yards to PIT 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-C.Austin to PIT 30 for 21 yards (22-G.Delpit; 47-C.Hughlett).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.54 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-3.19 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.54 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.40 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.50 pts |
| Curl route | -0.69 pts |
| QB keep | -0.88 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.23 pts |
| Quick out | -1.26 pts |
| Play action | -1.27 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.34 pts |
| Outside run | -1.37 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.51 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.78 pts |
| Inside run | -1.91 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.49 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.57 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.93 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
| Deep post | -3.19 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.